Below 300,000 for the First Time: South Korea’s School Enrollment Cliff Becomes Reality

The number of first-grade students entering elementary school in South Korea this year has fallen below 300,000 for the first time on record, underscoring the accelerating impact of the country’s prolonged low birth rate on its education system.

According to the Ministry of Education’s 2025 revised student population projections, the estimated number of first-grade elementary students nationwide this year stands at 298,178. This marks a sharp decline from previous years and brings forward the anticipated “300,000 threshold collapse” by one year, earlier than the government’s earlier projection of 2027.

The downward trend has been steep. In 1999, South Korea recorded approximately 710,000 first-grade students. That figure fell to 401,752 in 2023 and 353,713 in 2024, before dropping below 300,000 this year. Compared with 2023, the number of new first graders has decreased by 25.8%, or roughly 100,000 students, in just three years.

Education authorities expect the decline to continue. The Ministry projects first-grade enrollment to fall further to 277,000 in 2027, 247,000 in 2029, and approximately 220,000 by 2031, indicating no near-term reversal in the trend.

The impact extends beyond elementary schools. The total number of students across elementary, middle, and high schools is expected to fall from 5.01 million last year to 4.83 million this year, breaking below the symbolic 5 million mark. By 2031, the overall student population is projected to decline to 3.81 million, signaling the end of the “4 million student era.”

The rapid contraction of the school-age population is already reshaping the education landscape. School closures are increasing not only in rural areas but also in outer metropolitan regions, while regional universities struggling to meet enrollment quotas face growing existential challenges.

At the policy level, tensions are rising. As the government moves to reduce teacher staffing levels in response to shrinking student numbers, educators have voiced concerns that such measures could undermine education quality.

The latest figures highlight how demographic change is translating into structural pressure across South Korea’s education system, with long-term implications for schools, universities, and education policy nationwide.